After remaining feeble for over a week, the southwest monsoon may gain some strength by the end of this week. As a harbinger, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal around August 13, 2025. At present, break-monsoon conditions are prevailing, with the monsoon trough shifting its position to north of its original position.

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As per the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the western end of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs north of its normal position, while the eastern end runs near the foothills of the Himalayas. The position of the monsoon trough is more favourable to Himalayan States, where heavy rainfall is likely. Whereas, much of central India and parts of the southern peninsula will remain relatively dry due to the effect of the prevailing break-monsoon conditions.

However, the monsoon activity is expected to gain strength over Kerala, albeit not an intense rainfall activity, with the change in the weather systems in the Bay of Bengal. This, coupled with the continuing propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is likely to support cyclonic activity over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days, enhancing the rainfall activity over core monsoon regions.

There is also a chance for the existing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition, characterised by cooler ocean water in the western Indian Ocean, to throw a dampener on the monsoon surge as well.

There would be more clarity on the rainfall activity after the formation of a low-pressure system as the accuracy of models is best for the initial five days.

Shortfall

Kerala has received only 75.4 mm of rainfall since the first of August against the normal average rainfall of 179 mm of rain from August 1 to 11. The overall shortfall in rain in Kerala from the first of June till this time has now increased to 15%.

If the monsoon remains weak after a couple of short-lived spells in August, it would be a matter of concern for Kerala, as there is a chance for the monsoon to end up with a deficient season this year.