The year 2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record, with the global average temperature for January-September 2026 touching 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times (the average of the 1850-1900 period), according to a new World Meteorological Organization report.

It added that this global average temperature figure was higher than the full-year averages in 2025 and 2023, and only slightly lower than 2024, which is the warmest year on record.

Moreover, the figure is likely to rise through the end of 2026 because of the warming effect of the prevailing El Nino, which has been intensifying since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December.

The report, ‘State of the Climate Report’, was released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Friday – the first day of this year’s UN climate meeting, known as COP31, in Antalya, Türkiye.

In a statement, WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said, “The past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, and the heat in the oceans is breaking records for the tenth year in a row.”

“The ongoing El Nino is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, and the heat it releases from the ocean will continue to fuel high temperatures and extreme weather into 2027,” she added.

Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide

The key reason behind the rising global temperatures is that the Earth’s energy imbalance is rising, and the earth system is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate.

The imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began, as greenhouse gases trap unprecedented amounts of heat and upset the equilibrium between incoming energy from the sun and outgoing energy, according to the WMO report.

It revealed that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by 53% from around 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to about 426.8 ppm in 2025. Global averaged methane concentrations increased from 729 parts per billion (ppb) in 1750 by 167% to 1,948 ppb in 2025.

Moreover, the ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth successive year of record ocean warmth, the report said.

It also highlighted that extreme events impacted lives and livelihoods, undermined food security, deepened poverty, and contributed to displacement across multiple regions.

For instance, the European heatwaves, drought and wildfires led to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates.

An estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat in an April 2026 heatwave, according to the report.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement, “We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Nino is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising.”

“And those least responsible are suffering first and worst. Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need,” he added.